PRESIDENT-FOR-LIFE

HOW CLOSE IS THE UNITED STATES TO A PRESIDENT-FOR-LIFE?

The last six weeks have seen a cascade of moves—troop deployments, emergency decrees and threats to jail elected rivals—that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. Taken together, they place the United States squarely in the “competitive-authoritarian” danger zone: elections still exist, but the guard-rails that keep any one leader from ruling indefinitely are buckling fast. Below is a concise assessment of how the two likeliest pathways to one-man rule—martial-law-by-decree and electoral engineering—have advanced, what brakes remain, and what signposts to watch next.

1. THE MARTIAL-LAW TRACK

FEDERAL TROOPS ON CITY STREETS

• On June 7th,President Trump federalized 2,000 California National Guard troops for immigration-protest policing in Los Angeles without Governor Gavin Newsom’s consent. 

• A week later an appeals court let him keep 4,000 Guard and clear the way for 700 active-duty Marines—the first regular troops deployed for crowd control since 1992.

INSURRECTION-ACT TALK

Senior adviser Stephen Miller told CNN the White House is “actively discussing” invoking the 1807 Insurrection Act, which would give those troops arrest powers and sidestep the Posse Comitatus Act. A leaked DHS letter even asks the Pentagon to authorize military detention of protesters under Title 18.

CRIMINALIZING ELECTED RIVALS

•  DHS agents hand-cuffed Senator Alex Padilla at a press event after he questioned the legality of the raids. 

• Trump openly said it would be “a great thing” if ICE arrested Governor Newsom for “obstruction”. 

When opposition politicians face physical restraint or prosecution, the final institutional firebreak to martial law is nearly gone.

2. THE ELECTORAL-MANIPULATION TRACK

EXECUTIVE ORDER 14259

On March 25th, Trump signed an order requiring hard-copy proof of U.S. citizenship for voter registration, banning late-arriving mail ballots and threatening to pull federal funding from non-compliant states. Voting-rights groups say millions could be purged, overwhelmingly young and minority voters.

CONSTITUTIONAL END-RUN

A House resolution to repeal the 22nd Amendment’s two-term limit gained 110+ GOP sponsors in May. Ratification still needs 38 states—but repeated troop deployments can coerce recalcitrant legislatures.

DECLINING DEMOCRACY SCORES

• V-Dem’s 2025 report puts the United States on its Autocratizers Watch-List after the steepest five-year rule-of-law drop in the G-7. 

• International IDEA now labels the U.S. a “back-sliding democracy,” citing attacks on universities and media. 

Manipulating the franchise while subduing watchdog sectors is the classic formula Hungary and Turkey used to entrench their rulers.

3. GUARD-RAILS STILL HOLDING

Federal courts: Judge Charles Breyer ruled the LA troop order illegal; the Ninth Circuit put that ruling on hold but set an expedited calendar.

State sovereignty: Twenty-two attorneys general back California’s lawsuit against federalization.

Military professionalism: Pentagon lawyers wrote restrictive “rules of engagement” that bar Marines from policing unless an Insurrection Act proclamation is issued.

Should any two of those brakes fail—e.g., a court-blocking emergency order plus an Insurrection-Act proclamation—the president could wield de facto unlimited domestic authority.

4. INDICATORS TO WATCH IN COMING WEEKS

1. Formal Insurrection-Act proclamation posted in the Federal Register.

2. Emergency electoral decree delaying or overriding the 2026 mid-terms.

3. Senate conviction or DOJ indictment of hostile governors or lawmakers.

4. Rapid state ratifications of the term-limit repeal while Guard units occupy their cities.

5. THE PROBABLE ARC

The United States is no longer merely flirting with authoritarian tactics; it is assembling the legal, coercive and narrative machinery needed for a president-for-life. Courts, some governors and parts of the officer corps are still resisting, so an outright declaration this summer remains possible but not inevitable. Yet with each protest labelled “insurrection,” each election rule rewritten, and each critic man-handled, the distance to that declaration shrinks. Unless those remaining guard-rails hold—or the electorate imposes decisive electoral costs—America could cross the line from “competitive” to “consolidated” autocracy before the 2026 ballots are even printed.